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04/19/24 12:05:00
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04/19 12:03 CDT Debate over tight end value hovers over Brock Bowers' draft
prospects
Debate over tight end value hovers over Brock Bowers' draft prospects
By JOSH DUBOW
AP Pro Football Writer
Evaluating Brock Bowers the player is a fairly straightforward assignment.
As he showed in three seasons at Georgia, Bowers is a dynamic receiver with the
ability to create separation, make contested catches and create big plays after
the catch, along with being a more than capable blocker.
Bowers is widely considered one of the top 10 players in next week's NFL draft
but because he plays the lower-premium position of tight end, there is much
more uncertainty about how high he will get drafted.
While there could be teams in the top 10 willing to make the rare investment in
a tight end, there is also the distinct possibility Bowers slips in the first
round as teams prioritize high-value positions like quarterback, wide receiver,
pass rusher, tackle or cornerback. Bowers is currently favored to be drafted
outside the top 10, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
"He is tough. He is easy to grade. I mean, when you watch him, he's super easy
to grade. He is one of the best 10 players in the draft," said NFL Network
draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah, who compared Bowers to All-Pro George Kittle and
praised his tenacity, speed, ability to create separation and run after the
catch.
"The challenge is then figuring out where does he go in the draft, and I think
when you look around the league and you see most of these top tight ends that
have come on day two or even beyond that, teams are now saying, 'OK, we can
find that other tight end. Maybe we don't get the top guy, but we can get a
really, really good player who might end up being the top guy without having to
pay that premium."
Of the top 15 tight ends in receptions last season, only four were first-round
picks with only Buffalo rookie Dalton Kincaid and Cleveland's David Njoku doing
it for the team that drafted them. Five others were picked on the second day of
the draft, with six more going the final day.
In all, 12 tight ends have been taken in the first round of the past 15 drafts
with only one of those players --- Atlanta's Kyle Pitts --- generating even one
1,000-yard receiving season. Njoku is the only one of seven first-round tight
ends from 2014-20 to get a second contract with his team. The last draft with a
first-round tight end who became a first-team All-Pro was 2003 with Dallas
Clark of the Indianapolis Colts.
The question is can Bowers be the outlier in a class that has no other tight
ends projected to go in the first round of the draft.
In three seasons at Georgia, he caught 175 passes for 2,538 yards in 40 games
and scored 31 total touchdowns --- five of them coming as a runner as the
Bulldogs did whatever they could to get the ball in his hands.
"He's not a tight end. He's a multiple option player," said ESPN draft analyst
Mel Kiper Jr., who ranked Bowers as the seventh-best player in the draft. "You
can put him in the backfield, slot, wing, outside, any which way, fullback,
H-back. You can do anything you want with Brock Bowers. So he is not a tight
end, he's just an offensive weapon."
Teams have been reticent about using high picks on tight ends, with just three
going in the top 10 of the past 15 drafts --- fewer than every position in that
span outside of safeties, centers and specialists. Only nine other tight ends
went in the first round since 2009, with the 12 total first-round picks ranking
ahead of centers (10) and specialists.
With the rookie wage scale slotting salaries by pick regardless of position, it
is more difficult for teams to generate surplus value by taking a tight end.
Only two of the 126 players making an average of more than $15 million a year,
according to Spotrac, are tight ends: Darren Waller and T.J. Hockenson.
Many of the top tight ends in the NFL have been picked on days two and three of
the draft, including 2013 third-rounder Travis Kelce, 2017 fifth-rounder Kittle
and even Sam LaPorta, who lasted until the second round last year for Detroit.
The payoff has been mostly underwhelming for the first-rounders, with none of
those players earning first- or second-team All-Pro honors in their careers,
including the three top 10 picks.
Eric Ebron lasted only four seasons in Detroit after being picked in 2014 with
the 10th selection, 2019 No. 8 pick Hockenson elevated his game after being
traded by the Lions to Minnesota midway through his fourth, and Pitts has yet
to make a big impact in his first three seasons after being drafted fourth
overall in 2021 by Atlanta.
Pitts' lack of production the past two years with 81 catches for 1,023 yards
could provide a cautionary tale for teams interested in using a high pick on
Bowers.
"Kyle Pitts is as talented as any tight end that I have ever evaluated,"
Jeremiah said. "You're still dependent on the position of the quarterback, so
depending on what you can get out of him. That coupled with the money
difference, the savings you get by taking a premiere position in the top 10,
it's tough to place him to know how high he is going to go."
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