NATO Commander: Putin Open to Risks    09/23 06:15

   Russian President Vladimir Putin is becoming "increasingly cavalier, 
dangerous and risk accepting," as his war in Ukraine drags on and as he seeks 
to divide Western allies, NATO's deputy commander in Europe said Tuesday.

   TALLINN, Estonia (AP) -- Russian President 
https://apnews.com/hub/vladimir-putin is becoming "increasingly cavalier, 
dangerous and risk accepting," as his war in Ukraine drags on and as he seeks 
to divide Western allies, https://apnews.com/hub/nato deputy commander in 
Europe said Tuesday.

   Air Chief Marshal Sir John Stringer spoke to The Associated Press at a 
security conference in https://apnews.com/hub/estonia amid warnings from some 
European leaders that Moscow is planning to test NATO's collective defense pact 
with bolder attacks that have already included sabotage and espionage.

   Stringer warned that NATO members need to be aware of the "febrile 
environment" and be careful in their response because Putin would like to 
provoke the alliance into an "overreaction."

   Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said last week that Russia might target 
NATO nations with deliberate drone or missile strikes while claiming they were 
accidental. French President Emmanuel Macron agreed and has asked his 
government to prepare a plan to protect critical infrastructure against 
potential drone attacks and cyberattacks.

   Other European officials say the threat from Russia is serious but have 
called for calm.

   A British defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss 
sensitive security matters, said the U.K. assessment is that Putin is not 
seeking direct confrontation with NATO. Officials in Estonia, Latvia and 
Lithuania, which border Russia, also have been more cautious about the prospect 
of a serious escalation after years of calling on Western nations to adopt a 
more hawkish approach to Moscow.

   "Ukraine is fighting. Russia is absorbed in Ukraine. We do not observe any 
buildup near our borders. And from that part, I think that most would agree 
that the perspective of direct military attack is not correct," Latvian 
President Edgars Rinkevics told a small group of reporters late Tuesday on the 
sidelines of the U.N. General Assembly in New York.

   The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew Whitaker, dismissed any concerns that 
Russia may be testing the transatlantic military alliance, telling the AP 
following a panel discussion in Des Moines, Iowa, on Tuesday evening that 
"Putin does not want a conflict with NATO."

   He said drone incursions into countries like Romania or Poland were largely 
the result of electronic warfare and unintentional but noted that hybrid 
activities like sabotage "are more concerning." Whitaker also warned against 
"overreacting" because "that's exactly what I think our adversaries would want 
or hope for."

   European countries have already faced 
https://apnews.com/article/russia-nato-drones-estonia-latvia-lithuania-50636d55b
ff486b74e73ab947076744f -- and several missiles -- as well as a campaign of 
covert Russian disruption which began after Putin's invasion of Ukraine.

   An AP interactive map tracking 
https://apnews.com/projects/russian-europe-sabotage/ shows the escalation, from 
59 incidents in March 2025 to more than 210 incidents ranging from vandalism, 
propaganda and influence operations to arson, sabotage and cyberattacks.

   NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told the AP in Iowa that Putin "knows that 
the United States and Europe are totally intertwined."

   "We have to make sure that we are prepared, we are strong, and he knows it. 
And if he does anything silly, he knows our reaction will be tough," Rutte said.

   Russia is already testing NATO defenses 

   In August, German officials accused Moscow of being behind 
https://apnews.com/article/germany-leipzig-airport-explosives-drone-russia-fa3de
ebe59f81baadc821c743fb26814 where a drone with explosives was found next to a 
Ukrainian plane laden with jet fuel. Last month, British officials said they 
disrupted 
https://apnews.com/article/russia-britain-sabotage-drone-factory-1ac35cba37e2af7
337616946c600b9a8 outside London. In August, an Estonian defense company was 
set on fire and a 
https://apnews.com/article/bulgaria-ukraine-arms-depot-explosion-fire-c13c2fdd0c
2a65a484a3594ca8f16bdf, though neither has been publicly attributed to Russia.

   Many saboteurs have been 
https://apnews.com/article/russia-sabotage-europe-ukraine-13ee37cf869139839f0d4a
3ebe7bd80d and some have no idea they are working for Moscow. That makes 
uncovering a plot challenging and 
https://apnews.com/projects/russian-europe-sabotage/ When asked by the AP in 
May if Russia was waging a covert campaign against the West, Putin responded: 
"Name one proven fact."

   The line between "accidental and deliberate is quite a fine one," Stringer 
said, referring to incursions of drones sent off course into NATO airspace by 
Russian GPS jamming or other electronic countermeasures to defend against 
Ukrainian drone strikes.

   It would be possible for Russia to escalate that activity but it does not 
mean Moscow has decided to do so, said Stringer, NATO's deputy supreme allied 
commander for Europe.

   While there are "a lot of different opinions as to how acute the threat is 
... Russia's attitude towards negligence" and deliberately targeting NATO 
neighbors "is almost the same," Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal told AP 
at the security conference.

   Both Stringer and Michal suggested the increase in covert attacks by Moscow 
was not because of a failure by NATO nations to stop them but as a direct 
consequence of Western support for Ukraine.

   Putin is trying to break NATO support for Ukraine, leaders say 

   Putin, Stringer said, is "looking at a whole number of things" to try to 
create division between NATO allies because his campaign in Ukraine is going 
badly.

   Michal likened the Russian leader to a "rat in the corner," who is 
escalating activity in Europe in an attempt to break Western support for Kyiv 
at a time when Moscow is under pressure.

   Russia's gains on the front lines in Ukraine have been slow and at a steep 
cost of more than half a million dead, even as Kyiv's deep-strike campaign 
targeting the country's energy industry has caused fuel shortages in 80 of 83 
Russian regions, Air Chief Marshall Sir Richard Knighton, chief of the U.K.'s 
defense staff, said earlier this month. Still, there's no suggestion the 
Russian leader is backing away from his goals in Ukraine.

   Baltic leaders like Rinkevics argue that Moscow will dig even deeper now as 
winter is approaching, saying that attacks on infrastructure are likely to 
increase over the next several months and that any possibility of diplomatic 
progress will likely not be seen until the spring.

   Putin is trying to undermine NATO's collective defense pact by testing 
nations with covert attacks that are hard to attribute, Michal said.

   But the Estonian leader said it's currently "improbable," that Putin will 
launch a conventional military attack on Europe because of the threat of a NATO 
response and because his forces are tied down in Ukraine.

   The high level of malign activity from Russia is "here to stay" until Putin 
changes his military goals, Michal said, adding that the best way to deter him 
is to "back Ukraine."